What Is a Bogey in Darts? How to Avoid Bogeys and Bad Leaves

Written by: Dax Munna

January 8, 2025

“WTF is a double bogey?”

- Anonymous

That is a what I heard from a friend I was throwing with when asked what I was writing about. You see, there really aren't quotes on bogeys (for golf, yes, but not for darts), so I thought it was a fun, fitting way to start this article. Ironically, it was in a leg where he left himself on a double bogey in darts and I got to illustrate it to him with in-game action. But like he asked, WTF is a double bogey in darts?

Let's back up a bit and start from a simpler question.

A question that comes up from players as they progress is: At what point should I consider setups and outs in 501?

There are mathematical and practical answers based on your skill level. In mathematical terms, it doesn’t hurt to learn the best margin-of-error ways to shoot every number. Don’t treat it like math that you have to compute each time. Treat it like a table of data to memorize. It starts with knowing (not calculating) the setups and outs for every number with 1, 2, and 3 darts in hand. You don't need to know every path, but starting with one path is important. Knowing is only half the battle. Then you need to be able to execute on correct targets; singles, doubles, and triples. Most are only thinking about outs when they get down to around 100. At the high level though, players are processing the math at 350 and below.

WHAT IS A BOGEY IN DARTS?

To give you perspective, the reason that First 9 darts is a stat that gets evaluated on the pro level is that their hope is to setup on darts 10, 11, and 12 to have 3 clean darts at the double on darts 13, 14, and 15. It is a thing of beauty when legs work out that way but sometimes things don’t go as planned, even for the best in the world. Every now and then, the pros leave themselves a bogey in darts games. It isn’t too horrible if they do it after 9 darts, but after 12 darts it is likely devastating to their money and ranking. So what is a bogey in darts and how do you avoid them?

A bogey in darts is defined as:

The numbers between 158 and 170 that do not have a mathematical 3-dart finish on a double: 159, 162, 163, 165, 166, 168, and 169.

While taking high outs from 158 to 170 doesn’t happen often, there is absolutely no chance for anyone, pro or novice, to take out a bogey in darts (throughout 2024, the best of the best had a 13% success rate on all high outs of 99,101+)*. Furthermore, you want to let your opponents know that you know what you are doing. Even if the chances are slim, you want to show them that you know how to set up properly. It will serve to build your confidence and put them under more pressure.

*If you like granular data the way I do, I highly recommend the data/articles of Christopher Kempf/Ochepedia and The Darts Orakel.

AVOIDING BOGEYS WHEN HITTING WHAT YOU WANT

This is not a comprehensive list of outs and setups — rather, I want you to think about number groups a little more open-mindedly. To avoid a bogey in darts, players need to be mindful of their math as they are throwing and counting down from 501. Numbers like 219, 222, 223, 225, 226, 228, and 229 mark the point where players need to actually avoid throwing all 3 darts at the 20.

Subtracting 60 from any of these numbers is the most common way to leave a bogey in darts. Ironically, it is also how they are learned the quickest as hard lessons. In these instances, 57s, 58s, and 59s are appropriate goals depending on which number you are throwing at to leave an out. There are options involving the Bull and 15 as well.

AVOIDING BOGEYS WHEN YOU MISS

A bogey in darts can be left from anywhere, but that usually involves spraying darts #1 and/or #2 and mixing in some spotty, inebriated math.

See this example: HOME has approached the leg optimally by leaving a finish. AWAY started turn 4 to the line on 202. In the heat of the moment, AWAY throws dart #1 in the S20, and dart #2 sprays into the S1 and blocks the T20 segment. They make a decision to cover away from the 20 and shoot the S19 on the last dart to leave 162, a bogey in darts.

While there is an opportunity to cover to the 17 to avoid a bogey in darts, making mistakes like this can lose you legs, sets, and matches.

AVOIDING BAD LEAVES

This line of thinking continues on a higher level in considering the numbers 231, 232, 233, 234, and 235. We have to approach the math properly so that we can get to an out. While we are not at actual bogey range simply by hitting a fat 60 or 57, by not shooting these numbers in an optimal way (shooting at the right singles and incorporating the bull), you give yourself a bad leave: a non-out number above 170. This is akin to leaving a bogey in darts when an out can be left.

As you get better and your likelihood of hitting triples increases, you should start looking to avoid the bogeys from higher numbers. With the same logic in mind, 259, 262, 263, 265, 266, 268, and 269 are numbers you need to be mindful of. Scoring 100 on any of these numbers will leave you a bogey in darts games. There are a few mathematical iterations to adjust for with these numbers, and the order of the darts you throw can be rather important.

For example, on 269 the minimum target score you hope to execute is 99, which would leave you wisely on 170. In order to achieve such a score, you cannot hit 2 single 20s to start. If you hit single 20 and cover to the 19s on dart #2, you can hit S19 or T19 and still set up for an out. Again, you need to show your opponent you know what you are doing. What you shoot for and the order in which you shoot these numbers are vital.

To take it a step further, as your knowledge of the setups and outs gets better and your accuracy improves, you start looking at 271, 272, 273, 274, and 275 in a different light. With the easy math, you know that scoring a 100 doesn’t even get you to the Big Fish (170). Initial thoughts suggest that you must need 2 triples to get to an out. However, you can score 101, 102, 103, 104, and 105 while only hitting 1 triple and using the bull. While technically this is outside the range of leaving a bogey in darts, you need to throw each of these with the math in mind. Again, not shooting these numbers optimally can give you a bad leave above 170.

Another half step up gets you to the number group 299, 302, 303, 305, 306, 308, and 309. This is the range where you need to be mindful that hitting a 140 leaves you on a bogey in darts. Each of these numbers has a minimum prescribed way of leaving yourself on an out. Short of hitting 3 triples, you need to hit the correct 2 triples and the correct single to leave yourself an out. The bull can technically be used instead of the single on most of these but with much more risk and no value-added upside on the backend.

DOUBLE BOGEY IN DARTS

“No finish on the backend of that one.” That is exactly what Mark Webster said commentating the World Championship match of Michael Van Gerwen against Brendan Dolan. Dolan had just left 345 and Webster preemptively and perceptively said this. This ended up being the last leg in a match that was closer than the score. We will never know if this leg could have ended differently because Dolan had one less potential turn at the double.

The next rung-up of numbers is pro-level thinking coupled with pro-level execution, but thinking it correctly is not as daunting as it may seem. It follows the same logic as the lower leaves we previously discussed. At 350, we can see that hitting a 180 will leave 170. Very easy math, but very difficult execution. But what if we leave 339, 342, 343, 345, 346, 348, or 349? Hitting a 180 from any of these numbers leaves us a bogey in darts. In fact, there is nothing that we can hit on any of these leaves that will get us to a finish.

A DEFINITION ON THE DOUBLE BOGEY

I call these Double Bogeys: numbers that will leave a bogey even if hitting a maximum. While you didn’t do anything wrong (you hit a 180 — you should be elated), the turn did not set you up for success. It is actually the turn before the 180 that needs to be managed better to avoid a bogey in darts.

For example, take a look at the HOME score here. All the HOME player did was cover away from the 20 to the 19, likely because the triple was blocked. In doing so, they left a double bogey. This is the main reason you see so many pro players covering the 17. They are setting up the setup shot.

Leaving 342 (a double bogey in darts) as opposed to leaving 344 is setting up the set up shot less optimally, as hitting a 180 from 342 would leave 162, a bogey. Hitting a 180 from 344 would leave 164, a finish.

OVERCOMING HISTORY

For many years we routinely saw Phil Taylor leave bogeys after 9 darts. It wasn’t so much purposeful, as it was indifferent. More often than not, no one was within a turn of him after 9 darts. He was setting up for 15 darts at a time when 15-darters weren’t as frequent.

These days, there are many more players prepared to throw 15-darters, including Luke Littler. To take a look at Kempf's stat here, now you know how important it is not to leave a bogey. He avoids them in winning the way he does, and others will need to follow suit if they want to have a chance to win some tough legs. This stat likely means he hasn't often left double bogeys either.

On this level against the throw, you need to have the ability/option to shoot at high outs after 9 darts and certainly after 12.

This setting up for the setup holds true no matter how many darts you’ve thrown. If you have the choice with dart #3, you want to avoid a double bogey in darts whenever you can. Even if you are not yet ready to execute such numbers, just recognizing and appreciating this level of mathematical mastery will prepare you for when you are.

99 - THE TWO-DART BOGEY

99 is a tricky number. While 99 can be taken out with the 3 darts, it is the only two-digit number that requires all three darts to take it out. In other words, you can’t go out on 99 with two darts; thus, you can look at it as a two-dart bogey in darts games. That being the case, there are a handful of numbers you want to be mindful of so as not to leave 99 with two darts in hand: 119, 114, 104, 102, 101, and 100.

Sometimes the choices players make on these numbers can lead to leaving 99 after the first dart. With 119, hitting 20 with your first dart is a less than optimal mathematical choice. 114, 104, and 102 present a problem. Being slightly askew of the 20 into different targets can leave you at 99. With 101, I have seen many people think it wise to try the T17 with three darts only to hit a S2 with the first.

On 100, T20 is most certainly the correct choice, but sometimes the stress of the situation leads to a dart straying into the S1. Watch Jen Mounts tackle a 99 checkout with a T7, T14, and a D18 (quite the unique finish) below:

In being mindful of what you are throwing, a lot of hard work, and a little luck (FYI: luck is the residue of hard work), this sort of math becomes commonplace to the point where you can avoid a bogey in darts games and you increase your chances of winning legs.

Respectfully,

Dax

Dr. Manhattan